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AT&T an ‘Extreme’ Bargain, May Rise 12% By Matthew Johnston | August 20, 2018 — 6:00 AM EDT
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T
AT&T Inc
33.11 +0.24%
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AT&T Inc. (T
T
AT&T Inc
33.11
+0.24%
) has continued its negative performance over the past couple of years, down 15% this year amid a broad underperformance in the telecom sector in general. But that negative performance looks overdone to Morgan Stanley analyst Simon Flannery, whose Overweight rating and price target on the stock imply the stock is selling at bargain value with about 12% upside. Using a bit of reverse engineering Flannery found that AT&T is trading at “extreme valuation levels,” not only relative to its own historical value, but also to shares of competitor Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc
54.65
-0.26%
), according to Barron’s.
AT&T Trades at Steep Discount
Stock P/E Ratio (TTM) 1-Year Performance
AT&T 6.45 - 15.1%
Verizon 7.27 + 3.5%
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Price Target Upside
$37 12.0%
As of 4:00 pm Friday, August 17, 2018
Changing Investor Sentiment
At least some of AT&T’s underperformance this year is due to concerns over its recent acquisition of Time Warner, a deal which could take years for the market to fully absorb. But AT&T’s decline also comes amid the wider underperformance of the telecom sector as a whole. (To read more, see: AT&T Seen Rising 17% in Wake of Time Warner Deal.)
That the telecom sector, which now makes up just a tiny fraction of the overall market, will be replaced late next month by a new communications services sector encompassing fast-growing stocks like Alphabet, Facebook and Netflix, gives Flannery reason to believe that investors will find the sector more exciting and attractive. That excitement will provide some boost to the lagging telecoms being as they are in their dying, outdated category. The fact that investors are also beginning to rotate toward more defensive stocks also supports shares of AT&T.
Lowest Value in 20 Years
Morgan Stanley, however, is not the only one that sees AT&T trading at bargain value, as Merrill Lynch upgraded its rating to buy at the end of last month when the stock was trading just slightly below where it is now. One reason for the upgrade was the recent acquisition of Time Warner, which Merrill Lynch’s analysts see as a way to add both earnings and cash as well as creating potential for future synergies. (To read more, see: AT&T and Time Warner Merger Case: What You Need to Know.)
But perhaps more importantly, they reaffirm Flannery’s thesis that AT&T is trading at a historically low valuation, noting that the stock is trading at its lowest P/E ratio in 20 years. While that claim is based on the analysts’ own data and others might argue that AT&T’s P/E Ratio has been lower in the past two decades, it’s still undeniably cheap.
Yet, the lower valuation is not completely because of unjustified investor fears, as the company still has work to do in order to become the more flashy modern media company that it is aspiring to be with acquisitions like Time Warner. The most recent quarterly earnings report showed the company adding fewer wireless customers than expected, causing the stock to fall as much as 4% on the news.
Read more: AT&T an ‘Extreme’ Bargain, May Rise 12% | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/news/att-extreme-bargain-may-rise-12/#ixzz5OnboPXdc
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